Intrade presidential election predictions
We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20, times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state.
Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome. Here's a map of the country, with each state sized by its number of electoral votes and shaded by the leading candidate's chance of winning it.
A candidate needs at least electoral votes to clinch the White House.
Election Betting Odds by Maxim Lott and John Stossel
Two measures help capture how important a state and its voters will be in determining the next president: In each of our simulations, we forecast the states and note the number of electoral votes each candidate wins. That gives us a distribution for each candidate, where the tallest bar is the outcome that occurred most frequently.
Our model produces a distribution of outcomes for the national popular vote. The curves will get narrower as the election gets closer and our forecasts become more confident.
Poll results aggregated from HuffPost Pollster, RealClearPolitics, polling firms and news reports. Forecast models by Nate Silver. Research by Jennifer Kanjana and Dhrumil Mehta. Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Matthew Conlen, Reuben Fischer-Baum, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Allison McCann, Andrei Scheinkman and Gus Wezerek.
Candidate portraits by Kristina Micotti. Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls. Statewide District 1 District 2. Statewide District 1 District 2 District 3. Our model is mostly based on state polls, but national polls inform various steps of its calculations, such as the trend line adjustment, house effects adjustment and demographic regression.
We update our forecast with new polls as they are released. Here are the polls we added in each update. Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming.
Who will win the presidency? Electoral votes Electoral votes.
Bookies: Go Big on Donald Trump (And Even Bigger on Hillary Clinton)
How the forecast has changed We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. Chance of winning Win prob. Electoral votes Popular vote. Our latest coverage March The winding path to electoral votes A candidate needs at least electoral votes to clinch the White House.
How much each state matters Two measures help capture how important a state and its voters will be in determining the next president: What to expect from the Electoral College In each of our simulations, we forecast the states and note the number of electoral votes each candidate wins.
Electoral College deadlock no candidate gets electoral votes 1.
IEM - Iowa Electronic Markets - The University of Iowa
How this forecast works Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our general election forecast. More coverage Weekly email Podcast.
Intrade - Wikipedia
Projected vote share over time. From polls to a forecast. From polls to an adjusted average. Google Consumer Surveys B. Electoral College deadlock no candidate gets electoral votes.
Recount at least one decisive state within 0. Clinton majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote. Trump majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote.
Clinton landslide double-digit popular vote margin.